Data study by MemeFees
What percentage of memecoins fail? Memecoin survival study 2026
9.2% of 21,423 graduated memecoins still traded at or above their graduation market cap 24 hours after graduation (graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026). The other 90.8% traded below it. A further 72 had no pool that DexScreener returned, so they are not in this share. Source: MemeFees follow-up checks of graduated tokens, with prices from DexScreener.
Published . Data version : the newest observation in the engine snapshot. The numbers update as new follow-ups close; cite the data version with any number.
Method: how MemeFees measures memecoin survival
What counts as survival. A memecoin graduates when its bonding curve fills and its liquidity moves to a pool. For each graduation, the MemeFees engine records the market cap at graduation. It then checks the market cap again 1 hour, 24 hours and 7 days later. A token survives a check when its market cap is at or above its graduation market cap. A token that trades below it fails that check.
Windows. The graduation market cap must be observed within 10 minutes of the graduation. Each check must happen within 10 minutes of its due time. A check that happens later is excluded.
Sources. Graduations come from the launchpad feeds and Jupiter, which the engine reads every 5 minutes. Follow-up market caps come from DexScreener.
Exclusions. Graduations with an estimated time and graduations with a market cap under $1,000 are left out: 4,760 at 24 hours over the last 14 days of retained rows. Meteora DBC is left out of every total: its pools migrate at creation, and its tokens are also graduates of the launchpads built on it. When DexScreener returns no matching pool, the check is missing. A missing check is not counted as a failure or as a survival. At 24 hours: 72 missing, 11,785 excluded, 1,006 still waiting.
Rates. A rate needs at least 30 measured tokens. Smaller groups show their n and no rate. Every number on this page comes from the engine at render time. Definitions version 2026-10-01.2.
| Check after | Graduations covered (UTC) | Measured (n) | No pool found | Excluded | Waiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 3 Sep 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 | 22,579 | 30 | 11,944 | 25 |
| 24 hours | 3 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026 | 21,423 | 72 | 11,785 | 1,006 |
| 7 days | 3 Sep 2026 to 24 Sep 2026 | 5,273 | 17,252 | 3,455 | 6,377 |
Limitations
- The study covers graduated tokens only. Most launches never graduate, and they are not in these shares.
- Only launchpads with a graduation feed are covered. Some feeds see only part of a launchpad's tokens.
- Missing checks are left out. At 7 days many checks find no pool. If those tokens had failed, the true share at 7 days would be lower than the share shown.
- Market cap is the DexScreener estimate at the check. It is not the price any trader paid or received.
- The study does not measure a market cap of zero, rug pulls or trader profit.
- Rows deleted by retention before 30 Sep 2026 were summarised under the earlier rule (any graduation market cap above $0), so the totals still include some of them.
- This is market data, not investment advice.
Headline findings
- 9.2% of 21,423 graduated memecoins still traded at or above their graduation market cap 24 hours after graduation (graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026). The other 90.8% traded below it. A further 72 had no pool that DexScreener returned, so they are not in this share.
- 2.9% of 5,273 graduated memecoins still traded at or above their graduation market cap 7 days after graduation (graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 24 Sep 2026). The other 97.1% traded below it. A further 17,252 had no pool that DexScreener returned, so they are not in this share. More checks found no pool than found a price.
- The median pump.fun graduate had a market cap of 3.6% of its graduation market cap, a fall of 96.4%, 24 hours after graduation (n=21,337, graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026).
- Across the two launchpads with at least 30 measured graduates, the 24-hour share at or above the graduation market cap ranged from 4.5% on LetsBONK.fun (n=67) to 9.2% on pump.fun (n=21,337), graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. LetsBONK.fun comes from a feed that sees only part of the launches, so its graduates are a sample only.
- 31.8% of 22,579 graduated memecoins still traded at or above their graduation market cap 1 hour after graduation (graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 1 Oct 2026). The other 68.2% traded below it. A further 30 had no pool that DexScreener returned, so they are not in this share.
Not published, because the data cannot support it yet:
- No launchpad has a closed 7-day launch cohort of 30 or more launches with a launch count that may be published.
Memecoin survival rate by launchpad and time after graduation
| Launchpad | After 1 hour | After 24 hours | After 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | 31.8% of 22,491median 0.23×1 no pool | 9.2% of 21,337median 0.04×11 no pool | 2.9% of 5,232median 0.04×16,781 no pool |
| LetsBONK.funsample feed | 19.4% of 67median 0.43×1 no pool | 4.5% of 67median 0.23×1 no pool | 0.0% of 33median 0.17×34 no pool |
| Bags | n=12, too few27 no pool | n=11, too few56 no pool | n=1, too few61 no pool |
| Jupiter Studiosample feed | n=6, too few | n=7, too few | n=6, too few1 no pool |
| Moonshotsample feed | n=1, too few | n=1, too few | n=1, too few |
| four.memesample feed | n=0, too few1 no pool | n=0, too few2 no pool | n=0, too few2 no pool |
| Raydium LaunchLabsample feed | n=2, too few | n=0, too few2 no pool | n=0, too few373 no pool |
| All launchpads | 31.8% of 22,57930 no pool | 9.2% of 21,42372 no pool | 2.9% of 5,27317,252 no pool |
Each cell: the share at or above the graduation market cap, the number of measured tokens (n), the median market cap at the check as a multiple of the graduation market cap, and checks with no pool found. "Sample feed": the source sees only part of the launchpad's launches, so its graduates are a sample only. A rate needs at least 30 measured tokens. A pooled median for all launchpads is not shown, because per-launchpad medians cannot be combined.
How many memecoins graduate at all
Survival above is measured on graduates only. This table shows the step before it: graduations and launches per launchpad on the 7 UTC days from 24 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026. Launch counts follow the MemeFees launch-count rules: a floor reads "at least", and a feed that sees only part of the launches shows no number.
| Launchpad | Graduations | Launches | Graduated within 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | 8,218 | at least 282,347 | not published |
| Raydium LaunchLab | 275 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| Bags | 23 | at least 2,807 | not published |
| LetsBONK.fun | 9 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| four.meme | 1 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| Believe | 0 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| Jupiter Studio | 0 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| Moonshot | 0 | Sample only, not a count | not published |
| Virtuals Protocol | 0 | at least 376 | not published |
The 24-hour graduation rate divides tokens created on a day that graduated within 24 hours by that day's launches. It is published only for closed cohorts of at least 30 launches with a count that may be published. Daily series: memecoin graduation rate.
How to cite this study
Suggested citation
MemeFees (2026). Memecoin survival study 2026 (data version 2026-10-01). https://memefees.com/research/memecoin-survival-2026
- Permalink
- https://memefees.com/research/memecoin-survival-2026
- Title
- Memecoin survival study 2026
- Data version
- 2026-10-01 (definitions 2026-10-01.2)
- Licence
- MemeFees-produced data: CC BY 4.0. Credit MemeFees and link to this page. DexScreener prices stay under DexScreener's terms.
- Downloads
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of memecoins fail?
In this study, a graduated memecoin fails a check when its market cap is below its graduation market cap. 90.8% failed the 24-hour check (19,444 of 21,423 measured graduates), and 97.1% failed the 7-day check (5,121 of 5,273 measured graduates). Checks with no pool found are left out.
How many memecoins survive a week?
2.9% of 5,273 measured graduates traded at or above their graduation market cap 7 days after graduation, for graduations from 3 Sep 2026 to 24 Sep 2026.
What percentage of pump.fun coins fail?
Of the pump.fun graduates that MemeFees measured, the share at or above the graduation market cap was 9.2% after 24 hours (n=21,337) and 2.9% after 7 days (n=5,232). A graduate is a token that filled its bonding curve. Most launches never get there.
Do most memecoins go to zero?
The study compares each token's later market cap with its graduation market cap. It keeps no separate count of tokens at zero. The median pump.fun graduate had a market cap of 3.6% of its graduation market cap, a fall of 96.4%, 24 hours after graduation (n=21,337). A follow-up with no pool found is counted as missing, not as zero.
Can I use this data?
Yes. MemeFees-produced data on this page is licensed CC BY 4.0. Credit MemeFees and link to https://memefees.com/research/memecoin-survival-2026. The JSON and CSV downloads use the same numbers as the page.