How pump.fun tokens really graduate: an on-chain study
Of 138 pump.fun tokens that graduated between October 23, 2026 and October 24, 2026, 42% graduated within 2 blocks of their creation, before any outside buyer could trade on the bonding curve. In 29.7% of graduations the creator bought at least half the supply in the create transaction. Only 53.6% graduated after real trading on the curve. In a random sample of 246 launches, 1.6% graduated, and 0.8% graduated organically.
Source: finalized Solana transactions read by MemeFees · Published · Data version
How pump.fun graduations happen
- Creator bought the curve, graduated within 2 blocks: 29.7% (41 of 138)
- Bundle bought the curve, graduated within 2 blocks: 12.3% (17 of 138)
- Half or more bought in the create block, later graduation: 4.3% (6 of 138)
- Graduated after trading on the curve: 53.6% (74 of 138)
A pump.fun token graduates when about 793 million tokens, 79.31% of the supply, have been bought from its bonding curve. One buyer with about 86 SOL can do that in a single transaction. When the creator does it in the create transaction, the token graduates in the block where it was born. The graduations that did not happen at once took a median of 8 minutes.
pump.fun graduation statistics
| Graduations where | Share | 95% interval | Tokens | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graduated within 2 blocks | 42% | 34.1% to 50.4% | 58 / 138 | Migration at most 2 blocks (about 1 second) after the create transaction. |
| Creator funded the graduation | 29.7% | 22.7% to 37.8% | 41 / 138 | The creator bought 50% or more of the supply in the create transaction. |
| Bundled at launch | 32.6% | 25.4% to 40.8% | 45 / 138 | Wallets other than the creator bought 5% or more in the create block. |
| Half the supply bought in the create block | 46.4% | 38.3% to 54.7% | 64 / 138 | Creator and same-block wallets together. |
| Organic graduation | 53.6% | 45.3% to 61.7% | 74 / 138 | Not within 2 blocks, and less than half bought in the create block. |
| Creator wallet exited | 93.4% | 87.6% to 96.6% | 114 / 122 | Creator holds 10% or less of its launch buy when checked (tokens where the creator bought). |
| Creator ran 100+ transactions in hour 1 | 27.9% | 21.3% to 35.6% | 41 / 147 | Creator transactions on its own token in the first hour; usually a trading bot. |
| Mayhem mode token | 29.9% | 23.1% to 37.8% | 44 / 147 | pump.fun mints an extra allocation for its Mayhem agent wallet. |
pump.fun graduation rate of all launches
About 47,415 pump.fun tokens were created per day in the study window. We counted every create transaction on Solana, drew 246 of them at random and checked each one at least 2 hours after its creation.
| Launches that | Share | 95% interval | Tokens | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graduated | 1.6% | 0.6% to 4.1% | 4 / 246 | Migration found on-chain when checked. |
| Graduated organically | 0.8% | 0.2% to 2.9% | 2 / 246 | As above, without instant or first-block insider graduation. |
| Had a bundle at launch | 22.4% | 17.6% to 28% | 55 / 246 | Other wallets bought 5% or more in the create block. |
| Creator bought at launch | 51.2% | 45% to 57.4% | 126 / 246 | Any creator buy in the create transaction. |
Method
Cohorts. The graduated cohort is a random draw from every pump.fun graduation that the MemeFees engine recorded in the window. The launch cohort is a random draw from every create transaction in its window. pump.fun's mint authority account signs each new token, so its transaction list is a complete list of creates.
What we read. For each token we read its bonding curve account and the curve's transactions from the oldest one, which is the create transaction. A wallet whose token balance rises in a transaction bought in that transaction. This works for every route, including bots and routers. The migration transaction gives the graduation block. We then read the creator's token account: its transactions in the first hour and its balance when checked.
Intervals. Every share shows a 95% Wilson interval. A share needs at least 30 tokens. Definitions version 1. The same code runs in the pump.fun rug checker.
Limitations
- Wallet ownership is not visible. A creator who funds many wallets before launch looks like a bundle of strangers, and a bundle can be a group of real snipers.
- Creator tokens moved to other wallets count as moved, not as sold.
- Curves with more than 8,000 transactions are skipped (2 in the graduated cohort, 3 in the launch cohort). These are busy tokens, often graduated ones, so the organic share and the graduation rate may be a little low.
- The study covers one window. Launch behaviour on pump.fun changes with fee and program updates.
Download the data and cite it
One row per token, 393 rows: pump-fun-launch-forensics.csv. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
MemeFees (2026). How pump.fun tokens really graduate: an on-chain study (data version 2026-10-24). https://memefees.com/research/pump-fun-graduations-2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the pump.fun graduation rate?
In our random sample of 246 pump.fun launches, 1.6% graduated (95% interval 0.6% to 4.1%). Counting only graduations after trading on the curve, the rate is 0.8%.
How many pump.fun tokens are created per day?
About 47,415 per day in the study window. We counted every create transaction on Solana through the pump.fun mint authority account, which signs each new token.
What does it mean when a pump.fun token graduates in the first block?
The bonding curve was full in the block where the token was created. The creator or a bundle of wallets bought about 79% of the supply at once, so no outside buyer traded on the curve. This happened in 42% of the graduations we checked.
What share of pump.fun graduations are bundled?
32.6% of graduations had other wallets buy 5% or more of the supply in the create block. Counting the creator too, 46.4% had 50% or more bought in that block.
Do pump.fun creators sell their tokens?
Of the graduated tokens where the creator bought at launch, 93.4% of creator wallets held 10% or less of their launch buy when we checked. Tokens moved to other wallets count as moved, not sold.
How can I check a single pump.fun token?
Use the MemeFees pump.fun rug checker. It reads the same launch data for one mint address: the creator buy, same-block bundles, the share bought in the first 4 seconds, how it graduated and how much the creator still holds.